Investigative work argues that on-chain metrics are proving miners have capitulated, while whales appear to be lone Bitcoin dip-buyers.
Bitcoin (BTC) miners may have already sparked a “capitulation event,” fresh analysis has concluded.
In an update on June 24, Julio Moreno, senior analyst at on-chain data firm CryptoQuant, hinted the BTC price bottom could now be due.
BTC price bottom “typically” follows miner capitulation
Miners have seen a dramatic change in circumstances since March 2020, going from unprecedented profitability to seeing their margins squeezed.
This, CryptoQuant suggests, precedes the final stages of the Bitcoin sell-off more broadly in line with historical precedent.
“Our data demonstrate a miner capitulation event that has occurred, which has typically preceded market bottoms in previous cycles,” Moreno summarized.
Miner sales have been keenly tracked this month, with the @Bitcoin Twitter account even describing the situation as miners “being drained of their coins.”
— Bitcoin (@Bitcoin) June 18, 2022
“For miners, it’s time to decide to stay or leave,” CryptoQuant CEO, Ki Young Ju, added in a Twitter thread last week.
The situation is tenuous, but the majority of miners remain active, as witnessed by network fundamentals dropping only slightly from all-time highs of over 30 trillion.
Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com
Mixed signals over buyer interest
When it comes to other large BTC holders, however, the picture appears less clear.
After whales bought up liquidity near $19,000, CryptoQuant’s Ki this week heralded the arrival of “new” large-volume entities.
Outflows from major United States exchange Coinbase, he noted, reached their highest since 2013.
Time to welcome new #Bitcoin whales.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) June 23, 2022
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital nonetheless reiterated doubts about the strength of overall buyer volume, arguing that sellers were conversely still directing market movements.
Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (MA), a key support level during previous bear markets, has yet to see significant interest from buyers despite spot price being around $2,000 below it.
“Current BTC buy-side volume following the extreme sell volume spike is still lower than the 2018 Bear Market buyer follow-through volume levels at the 200-week MA. Let alone March 2020 buy-side follow-through,” he told Twitter followers.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter
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